Skip to main content

When will Covid-19 end?

 

Image from ShutterStock

Historically a pandemic has 3 types of ends. One, medical end which implies that the disease does not spread any more. Two, social end which happens when life returns to normal. And the last is political which is decided by the government.

 Obviously, it is the first kind that matters. And that end seems quite distant as of now. There is a lot of movement of people even now, including international journeys. That makes it a big challenge for medical science to contain the virus. People will have to acquire natural immunity to the virus if a medical end to the pandemic has to arrive. The vaccines are meant to bring about that immunity. Some may develop immunity by contracting the disease and overcoming it. A few may develop the immunity internally. There is also the possibility of the virus weakening due to various reasons and eventually disappearing.

Science has observed that the rate at which a pandemic moves towards its peak is the same as the rate of its decline. For example, if the doubling time of the spread (100 to 200 to 400 etc) is 20 days, the halving time (100 to 50 to 25 etc) will be 20 days too. Keeping that and the progress of the virus so far in mind, it is estimated that Covid-19 will beat a retreat only by the end of 2021 or the beginning of 2022.

Spanish Flu as an example

Look at the history of Spanish Flu in brief. It ravaged the world a century ago, in 1918-1920. Each wave lasted about 4 months.

1st Wave: Feb to June 1918

2nd Wave: Aug to Dec 1918

3rd Wave: Jan to April 1919

4th Wave: Dec 1919 to April 1920

The second wave was the deadliest killing millions of people all over the world. India witnessed the death of nearly 20 million people in that period. Bombay alone recorded 15,000 deaths when the population of the city was 1.1 million. The pandemic was known as Bombay Fever in India at that time.

The last wave hit after an interval of 8 months. In the meanwhile, the pandemic had affected 50 crore people and killed 5 crore. Spanish Flu affected only about half the countries in the world because international travels were not so common in those days. Those whom it killed were older than 40 mostly. But we should remember that the average lifespan in those days was 45. Most of the deaths were caused by pneumonia that followed the virus infection. We can see some similarities with Covid-19.

Because of improved health conditions, the most risky group hit by Covid-19 seems to be those above 60 years old. But the virus has done much harm to youngsters too. No one can afford to take risks though the second wave seems to be receding.

PS. Did this virus come as a result of what we did to the planet and the environment? Or did China create it in a lab? You can read about China’s role here: The Evil Empire: Is China on its way to world domination?

PPS. The above post is based largely on an article I read in a Malayalam weekly, Madhyamam, written by Dr Jayakrishnan T.

Comments

  1. Yamini MacLeanJune 8, 2021 at 5:36 PM

    Hari OM
    Indeed, I beleive there is still quite a way to go before we reach anything like the 'normality' of not having to worry about whether each person we meet has potential to pass on this serious illness to us. I avoid subscribing to conspiracy theories - but the fact that WHO is investigating so thoroughly the possible lab escape suggests the 'no smoke without fire' aspect... oh to be a fly on the historian's wall a hundred years hence. YAM xx

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tomichan MatheikalJune 8, 2021 at 6:38 PM

      Given China's track record, this possibility cannot be ruled out. Xi thinks he's performing a divine task.

      Delete
  2. FoodopiumJuly 2, 2021 at 5:50 PM

    The way the virus is mutating my guess its not natural, cannot rule out the china angle, but it is now no use of blaming anyone. Its in our backyard and we have take care of it by ourselves, yesterday received a message from my friend who is doctor, listing how many doctors we have lost to the virus only in Karnataka its staggering....have lost many relatives to this virus in 1st wave and 2nd wave. Hope to see some sense in the people and follow safety regulation given the government and vaccinate themselves before the virus taps on your door :-) Since seen the roll coaster from the front seat...would not advise this ride for any body !

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Pranita a perverted genius

Bulldozer begins its work at Sawan Pranita was a perverted genius. She had Machiavelli’s brain, Octavian’s relentlessness, and Levin’s intellectual calibre. She could have worked wonders if she wanted. She could have created a beautiful world around her. She had the potential. Yet she chose to be a ruthless exterminator. She came to Sawan Public School just to kill it. A religious cult called Radha Soami Satsang Beas [RSSB] had taken over the school from its owner who had never visited the school for over 20 years. This owner, a prominent entrepreneur with a gargantuan ego, had come to the conclusion that the morality of the school’s staff was deviating from the wavelengths determined by him. Moreover, his one foot was inching towards the grave. I was also told that there were some domestic noises which were grating against his patriarchal sensibilities. One holy solution for all these was to hand over the school and its enormous campus (nearly 20 acres of land on the outskirts
13 comments
Read more

Randeep the melody

Many people in this pic have made their presence in this A2Z series A phone call came from an unknown number the other day. “Is it okay to talk to you now, Sir?” The caller asked. The typical start of a conversation by an influencer. “What’s it about?” My usual response looking forward to something like: “I am so-and-so from such-and-such business firm…” And I would cut the call. But there was a surprise this time. “I am Randeep…” I recognised him instantly. His voice rang like a gentle music in my heart. Randeep was a student from the last class 12 batch of Sawan. One of my favourites. He is unforgettable. Both Maggie and I taught him at Sawan where he was a student from class 4 to 12. Nine years in a residential school create deep bonds between people, even between staff and students. Randeep was an ideal student. Good at everything yet very humble and spontaneous. He was a top sportsman and a prefect with eminent leadership. He had certain peculiar problems with academics. Ans
25 comments
Read more

Queen of Religion

She looked like Queen Victoria in the latter’s youth but with a snow-white head. She was slim, fair and graceful. She always smiled but the smile had no life. Someone on the campus described it as a “plastic smile.” She was charming by physical appearance. Soon all of us on the Sawan school campus would realise how deceptive appearances were. Queen took over the administration of Sawan school on behalf of her religious cult RSSB [Radha Soami Satsang Beas]. A lot was said about RSSB in the previous post. Its godman Gurinder Singh Dhillon is now 70 years old. I don’t know whether age has mellowed his lust for land and wealth. Even at the age of 64, he was embroiled in a financial scam that led to the fall of two colossal business enterprises, Fortis Healthcare and Religare finance. That was just a couple of years after he had succeeded in making Sawan school vanish without a trace from Delhi which he did for the sake of adding the school’s twenty-odd acres of land to his existing hun
19 comments
Read more

The Adventures of Toto as a comic strip

  'The Adventures of Toto' is an amusing story by Ruskin Bond. It is prescribed as a lesson in CBSE's English course for class 9. Maggie asked her students to do a project on some of the lessons and Femi George's work is what I would like to present here. Femi converted the story into a beautiful comic strip. Her work will speak for itself and let me present it below.  Femi George Student of Carmel Public School, Vazhakulam, Kerala Similar post: The Little Girl
37 comments
Read more

Sanjay and other loyalists

AI-generated illustration Some people, especially those in politics, behave as if they are too great to have any contact with the ordinary folk. And they can get on with whoever comes to power on top irrespective of their ideologies and principles. Sanjay was one such person. He occupied some high places in Sawan school [see previous posts, especially P and Q ] merely because he knew how to play his cards more dexterously than ordinary politicians. Whoever came as principal, Sanjay would be there in the elite circle. He seemed to hold most people in contempt. His respect was reserved for the gentry. I belonged to the margins of Sawan society, in Sanjay’s assessment. So we hardly talked to each other. Looking back, I find it quite ludicrous to realise that Sanjay and I lived on the same campus 24x7 for a decade and a half without ever talking to each other except for official purposes.      Towards the end of our coexistence, Sawan had become a veritable hell. Power supply to the
12 comments
Read more