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When will Covid-19 end?

 

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Historically a pandemic has 3 types of ends. One, medical end which implies that the disease does not spread any more. Two, social end which happens when life returns to normal. And the last is political which is decided by the government.

 Obviously, it is the first kind that matters. And that end seems quite distant as of now. There is a lot of movement of people even now, including international journeys. That makes it a big challenge for medical science to contain the virus. People will have to acquire natural immunity to the virus if a medical end to the pandemic has to arrive. The vaccines are meant to bring about that immunity. Some may develop immunity by contracting the disease and overcoming it. A few may develop the immunity internally. There is also the possibility of the virus weakening due to various reasons and eventually disappearing.

Science has observed that the rate at which a pandemic moves towards its peak is the same as the rate of its decline. For example, if the doubling time of the spread (100 to 200 to 400 etc) is 20 days, the halving time (100 to 50 to 25 etc) will be 20 days too. Keeping that and the progress of the virus so far in mind, it is estimated that Covid-19 will beat a retreat only by the end of 2021 or the beginning of 2022.

Spanish Flu as an example

Look at the history of Spanish Flu in brief. It ravaged the world a century ago, in 1918-1920. Each wave lasted about 4 months.

1st Wave: Feb to June 1918

2nd Wave: Aug to Dec 1918

3rd Wave: Jan to April 1919

4th Wave: Dec 1919 to April 1920

The second wave was the deadliest killing millions of people all over the world. India witnessed the death of nearly 20 million people in that period. Bombay alone recorded 15,000 deaths when the population of the city was 1.1 million. The pandemic was known as Bombay Fever in India at that time.

The last wave hit after an interval of 8 months. In the meanwhile, the pandemic had affected 50 crore people and killed 5 crore. Spanish Flu affected only about half the countries in the world because international travels were not so common in those days. Those whom it killed were older than 40 mostly. But we should remember that the average lifespan in those days was 45. Most of the deaths were caused by pneumonia that followed the virus infection. We can see some similarities with Covid-19.

Because of improved health conditions, the most risky group hit by Covid-19 seems to be those above 60 years old. But the virus has done much harm to youngsters too. No one can afford to take risks though the second wave seems to be receding.

PS. Did this virus come as a result of what we did to the planet and the environment? Or did China create it in a lab? You can read about China’s role here: The Evil Empire: Is China on its way to world domination?

PPS. The above post is based largely on an article I read in a Malayalam weekly, Madhyamam, written by Dr Jayakrishnan T.

Comments

  1. Yamini MacLeanJune 8, 2021 at 5:36 PM

    Hari OM
    Indeed, I beleive there is still quite a way to go before we reach anything like the 'normality' of not having to worry about whether each person we meet has potential to pass on this serious illness to us. I avoid subscribing to conspiracy theories - but the fact that WHO is investigating so thoroughly the possible lab escape suggests the 'no smoke without fire' aspect... oh to be a fly on the historian's wall a hundred years hence. YAM xx

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tomichan MatheikalJune 8, 2021 at 6:38 PM

      Given China's track record, this possibility cannot be ruled out. Xi thinks he's performing a divine task.

      Delete
  2. FoodopiumJuly 2, 2021 at 5:50 PM

    The way the virus is mutating my guess its not natural, cannot rule out the china angle, but it is now no use of blaming anyone. Its in our backyard and we have take care of it by ourselves, yesterday received a message from my friend who is doctor, listing how many doctors we have lost to the virus only in Karnataka its staggering....have lost many relatives to this virus in 1st wave and 2nd wave. Hope to see some sense in the people and follow safety regulation given the government and vaccinate themselves before the virus taps on your door :-) Since seen the roll coaster from the front seat...would not advise this ride for any body !

    ReplyDelete

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